School Organisation Plan 2023

Methodology

Data sources

The following data sources have been used to formulate the pupil forecasts:

• the latest (anonymised) spring (January 2023) school census data, providing information on the pupils attending mainstream schools in each planning area
• the number of pupils on roll recorded in the spring (January 2023) school census data for the previous academic year
• the number of Reception and Year 7 allocated places for September 2023
• details on each mainstream school
• a trajectory of planned housing growth
• actual births sourced from the Office for National Statistics (ONS) live births data series
• projected births sourced from the latest official Sub-National Population Projection (SNPP) from the ONS

Data processing

The first stage of the projection process calculates aggregate 'target' figures for each primary and secondary year group. These target totals are derived by rolling forward actual roll numbers using cohort ratios based on historical school census data.

A cohort ratio is calculated by dividing the Spring 2023 Year 9 total by the 2022 Year 8 figure, for example, with change in the cohort size from one academic year to the next associated with migration effects. For Reception year, the cohort ratio is calculated using birth totals from five-years earlier. For use in the model, this calculation is averaged over three years of data.

The targets form the overall controlling totals for the individual school and planning area projections that are presented in the final set of primary and secondary projection results.

Birth statistics are a key input to the projection process, a trajectory of future births has been derived from the ONS 2018-based SNPP,  released in March 2020. In the 2023 model update, birth totals for 2021 to 2022 have been scaled to the 2018-based SNPP birth trajectory; fixed beyond 2023 to 2024.

The calculation of the cohort ratios takes account of children that live in Stockton that is different to the location of their school. The balance is for a small net outflow for primary schools but for a net inflow for secondary schools.

Live births

From its low point in 2000 to 2001 the birth total for Stockton-on-Tees rose substantially to reach a peak of 2,474 in 2011 to 2012. Since then, birth numbers have gradually reduced, with just under 2,000 births in 2019 to 2020 for entry in September 2024. This is the lowest births number recorded over the historical period. As a result of these trends, secondary school intake is expected to peak in Spring 2022 through to 2024, gradually reducing thereafter. The peak number on roll across the school is likely to be achieved in Spring 2026.

The LA's secondary Capital strategy is mindful that this growth will peak 2023 to 2024 and follow National trends and reduce year on year. This drop will increase our surplus position in Secondary in future years, with continuing lower birth rates, this downward trend will continue at least for the next 3 to 4 years.

Beyond Spring 2032, the numbers on roll at secondary schools will be driven by future birth numbers (from 2020 to 2021 onwards - COVID effect), although despite early indications Nationally that lockdown has contributed to an increase in births during 2020 to 2021, this hasn't been reflected in birth figures across Stockton), determined by fertility trends and the size of the resident female population aged 15 to 49. Rebasing the most recent ONS birth projections to Stockton-on-Tees' latest birth registration count suggests a further decline in birth numbers. Erring on the side of caution given the uncertainty associated with demographic trends, the 2023 pupil projections assume that the annual estimate of new births remains constant after 2023.

Primary pupil projections

The base data for the primary pupil projections is sourced from the latest January school census (January 2023). Capacities and admission limits are also provided.

Reception intake numbers for the next academic year (Spring 2024 in the case of the 2023 model update) are estimated using the latest information on allocations and appeals available at the time of the pupil projection model being updated. These allocations totals are used as a proxy for the admission rolls in the following Spring. A check is made to ensure that the allocation and appeals (in total) is in line with the target for that year.

Reception intake numbers for subsequent projection years are estimated as an average of previous year's Reception, Year 1, and Year 2 totals, with an annual adjustment for any planned new housing or clearances in each school's admission zone.

Year 1 totals are derived from previous year's Reception totals, with adjustments applied to account for planned housing and migration factors. Totals for Years 2 to 6 is each calculated in a similar way.

Totals for children aged three and four are back calculated from the Reception figures for each school and are provided in the projection output to indicate the likely cohort size.

Manual adjustments to pupil projections are made under certain circumstances. These adjustments may be made to keep schools within their admission limit, with residual totals re-distributed to neighbouring primary schools.

The resulting total for the sum of pupil projections for all schools is compared to the overall target. A 'scaling factor' is calculated and is subsequently applied (in each projection year).

Secondary pupil projections

The base data for the secondary pupil projections is sourced from the latest January school census (January 2023). School capacity and admission limits are also provided.

Primary school pupil census data by year-group, is used to estimate the number of Year 7 pupils expected in each secondary school's admission zone for the next seven years. This estimate is compared to the numbers of pupils on roll and a 'propensity to attend' ratio is calculated using a weighted history of data to model the Year 6 to Year 7 transition.

The first year of the projection, totals for Year 7 were provided by the admissions team and include the latest information on allocations and appeals available at the time of the projections being updated. These allocation totals are used as a proxy for the admission rolls in Spring of the same school year. A check is made to ensure that the allocation and appeals data is in line with the target for that year.

For subsequent years, the numbers in the school admission zone are estimated and the derived 'propensity to attend' ratio is applied. So, for the Year 7 projection for Spring 2024, the model uses the Year 5 pupil cohort in Spring 2023 and applies the 'propensity to attend' ratio for each school.

Secondary academies are projected using the same methodology as other secondary community schools.

Year 8 totals are derived from previous year's Year 7 totals, with adjustments for housing and migration. Year 9 to Year 11 totals is each calculated in a similar way.

Where sixth forms exist at secondary schools, projections for these year groups (Years 12 and 13) are calculated using previous 'staying-on rates' at that school.

Manual adjustments to the pupil projections are made under certain circumstances. These adjustments may be made to keep schools within their admission limit, with residual totals redistributed to neighbouring secondary schools. These adjustments are made on request from each local authority and are based upon the school-specific intelligence of the respective place-planning teams.

The resulting total for the sum of pupil projections for all schools in Stockton is compared to the overall target. A scaling factor is calculated and is subsequently applied (in each projection year).

Migration and housing developments

Sites for new housing development are split into those with and those without planning permission.

Stockton planners provide a 'family homes' percentage for each new housing site. A family home is assumed to be all homes and flats with two or more bedrooms, and not housing specifically designed for older people.

The housing data is provided in an annual, April-to-April format, with a site location (site centroid) provided for each new development. The housing totals represent the position as of April/May/June for the year that pupil projections are being formulated.

With the aid of Geographical Information System (GIS) technology, each housing site centroid is plotted and assigned to its relevant school admission zone where possible. Aggregate housing growth totals are calculated for each year of the projection period for each primary school (community-academy-free school and Roman Catholic (RC)-academy school) and each secondary school (community-academy-free school and RC-academy school).

Due to there being some admission zones that overlap, adjustments are made to prevent the projected number of pupils moving into new housing from being included at more than one school.

For primary schools, the Council has reverted to the Tees Valley ratios where, 100 new family homes are expected, on average, to house 22 primary school aged pupils (3.1 pupils per year group). Current school roll totals have been used to identify a likely yield for both Catholic pupils (4 per 100 homes or 0.5 pupils per year group) and non- Catholic pupils (18 per 100 homes or 2.6 pupil per year-group).

Similarly, for secondary schools, we have used the ratio that 100 new family homes are expected, on average, to house approximately 13 secondary school aged pupils (2.6 pupils per year group, Years 7-11). Current school roll totals have been used to identify a likely yield for both Catholic pupils (3 per 100 homes or 0.6 pupils per year group) and non-Catholic pupils (10 per 100 homes or 2 pupil per year-group).

Stockton-on-Tees has a growing population, with a growing demand for housing. To ensure Stockton-on-Tees remains a great place to live, and that the housing needs of the Borough are met the Council will maintain a rolling 5-year supply of deliverable housing land. To achieve this the Council are preparing a new Local Plan; sites identified within the emerging Local Plan.

In the 2019 'Local Plan' (due to be updated for 2024) it includes a housing requirement of 10,150 homes to be delivered between 2017/2018 and 2031/2032. The housing requirement will be achieved through the delivery of homes on sites with planning applications and allocations within the emerging Local Plan. The housing strategy within the emerging Local Plan seeks to promote development in the most sustainable way through:

• supporting the aspiration of delivering housing in the Regenerated River Tees Corridor (between A66 and Newport Bridge) near Stockton Town Centre
• supporting development on suitable sites within the conurbation
• creating a Sustainable Urban Extension to West Stockton
• proposing major new residential development at Wynyard leading to the area becoming a sustainable settlement

There are several housing developments of greater than 250 homes that are either approved/planned or detailed in the 'Local Plan' across the borough that will affect most of our planning areas namely: Billingham and Wolviston - the Wynyard area (1,100 rising to 3,000+), North and Central Stockton - along Harrowgate / Yarm Back Lane (for 2,150 homes), Eaglescliffe and Yarm - (2,000+) and Ingleby Barwick - continues to expand (1,100).

Cross-border movement

Small adjustments have been factored into for cross border movement from pupils migrating into the Billingham and Wolviston planning area from Hartlepool Borough Council and similarly from Stockton South planning area (Thornaby) into Middlesbrough.

Planning area and borough-level pupil projections

The following projection tables are taken from the 2021 SCAP return and incorporate the change in methodology and indicate the Published Admission Numbers (PAN) for both Primary and Secondary Schools in each planning area, the allocated Reception and Year 7 only cohorts and the number of children expected in each of the subsequent years of entry.

Billingham and Wolviston: Primary and Secondary

This area includes thirteen primary schools with eleven being academies including the free school Wynyard CE Primary.

Table 8 - Primary school places: 8080001 Billingham and Wolviston

Capacity: 555

Recently some schools are experiencing lower than expected Reception intakes across this planning area, increasing surplus capacity so the LA will be monitoring this regarding any financial impacts on those schools involved. This trend is expected to continue based on projections due to lower birth rates. There are no planned expansions in this planning area given the capacity available.

Since its opening (September 2015) the free school has continued to displace children from surrounding schools namely from within this planning area but also from 8080002 as well as from neighbouring LA areas particularly those in County Durham.

The approval of a new Free School within a neighbouring LA area (Hartlepool) but in a housing area that is shared with Stockton - Wynyard. With 15% surplus in this planning area and only two schools full, the approval and timing of another school is not helpful and will cause further issues for the schools in this planning area in the coming years with regards displacing children and financial pressure on budgets.

It is expected that future housing growth in the Wynyard area albeit within a neighbouring council area (Hartlepool) could see an increase in the demand for school places in the future in this planning area. The Council already works closely with Hartlepool Borough Council School Place Planning colleagues as part of the Strategic Master Plan to ensure 'jointly' that there will be sufficient school places available in the future, if demand dictates there should be additional school places considered.

The impact on Free Schools opening in the Wynyard area have seen most of the Billingham primary schools having lower intakes which in turn creates pressure on budgets that impacts on staffing decisions. One school has reduced its Admission number from 75 to 60 reflect this (Prior's Mill CE) and one other is also proposing a reduction for entry in September 2025 from to 60 to 45 (Bewley).

Table 9 - Secondary school places: 8080007 Billingham and Wolviston

Capacity: 540

There are two secondary schools - Northfield School and St Michael's Catholic Academy. 

Traditionally the two schools accept pupils from 8080008 - Stockton North and Central due to parental preference and a RC primary feeder school into St Michaels' Catholic Academy instead of a local Stockton RC secondary. There are also small numbers of residents whose children secure places in another cross-border school, for example, Sedgefield in County Durham.

The above projections do not significantly exceed the current Capacity in most years, but the level of surplus places does fall below 5% in some years. The above figures reflect some movement of pupils from Stockton North and Central (8080008) into the St Michael's from a RC feeder primary school located in Norton. There is also some consideration for Stockton-on-Tees Borough Council children who are successful in gaining a place at a Sedgefield school in County Durham each year. However, the above figures do not consider those that successfully gain a place in independent schools.

North Stockton: Primary

This area includes fourteen primary schools (including nine academies). The table below reflects projected Reception intake numbers only.

Table 10 - Primary school places: 8080002 North Stockton

Capacity: 629

Recently some schools are experiencing lower than expected Reception intakes across this planning area, increasing surplus capacity so the LA will be monitoring this regarding any financial impacts on those schools involved. This trend is expected to continue based on projections due to lower birth rates. There are no planned expansions in this planning area given the capacity available. Its worth noting that one Academy (Crooksbarn Primary) has since increased its Admission Number (AN) to reflect parental preference by 5 places which exceeds overall Capacity in this area.

Lower pupil numbers have seen the following schools reduce their Admission numbers namely, Hardwick Green - from 60 to 30 and St John the Baptist CE - from 45 to 30.

Central Stockton: Primary

This area includes ten primary schools (including five academies).

Table 11 - Primary school places: 8080003 Central Stockton

Capacity: 435

Recently some schools are experiencing lower than expected Reception intakes across this planning area, increasing surplus capacity so the LA will be monitoring this regarding any financial impacts on those schools involved. This trend is expected to continue based on projections due to lower birth rates. There are no planned expansions in this planning area given the capacity available.

This area sometimes experiences a 'parental preference' effect as children travel further to access Reception places outside of this planning area and many parents can access school places at other schools. One RC Academy (St Patrick's) operates a lower Admission Number than its actual capacity but if demand dictates it will admit up to its capacity of 40 places rather than AN of 30.

The LA as part of a Strategic Infrastructure Plan with several developers and landowners related to the Harrowgate and Yarm Back Lane development, has secured a commitment of a site and potential new primary school should demand dictate it in the future. At present there is sufficient capacity in surrounding schools to meet demand.

Lower pupil numbers have seen the following schools reduce their Admission numbers namely, The Oak Tree - from 60 to 30 and Oxbridge Lane - from 58 to 30. Although the latter is in part due to an agreed reduction to overall capacity across the school to ensure the school is fit for purpose due to its old buildings and operating across a split site.

Stockton North and Central Secondary

This area includes five schools all of which are academies.

Table 12 - Secondary school places: 8080008 Stockton North and Central

Capacity: 1017

North Shore Academy (part of the Northern Education Trust - NET) since it was rebuilt on its current site in 2013 to cater for 1050 students (an Admission number of 210) has undergone a series of remodelling to ensure the Trust can deliver its curriculum. This in part was due to the fact the original design and subsequent build was of a 'open plan' nature. This over the years hasn't led to being an effective teaching model. During 2022 and 2023 following discussions with the LA, further remodelling has taken place with support from the LA to improve the school further. This has resulted in the school now operating as a 900 place school offering 180 places.

The LA and another trust Outwood Grange Academy Trust (OGAT) have been working to expand Bishopsgarth by 300 places from a 600-place school to 900 hopefully by spring 2024, to meet future demand from the approved housing schemes along both Harrowgate Lane and Yarm Back Lane demand.

If future demand exceeds supply, then this will be revisited to take the school up to 1050.

As stated above there has always been at least 40 pupils that access provision in 808007 due to the feeder link arrangement with the RC secondary academy.

Primary: Thornaby

This area includes seven primary schools (including 5 academies).

Table 13 - Primary school places: 8080004 Thornaby

Capacity: 280

Recently some schools are experiencing lower than expected Reception intakes across this planning area, increasing surplus capacity so the LA will be monitoring this regarding any financial impacts on those schools involved. This trend is expected to continue based on projections due to lower birth rates. There are no planned expansions in this planning area given the capacity available.

This area however experiences a 'parental preference' effect as children will travel further to access Reception places outside of this planning area. In addition, some schools tend to admit above their admission number which also adds capacity. This will need to be reviewed to ensure supply meets demand.

Primary: Ingleby Barwick

This area includes six primary schools (including 4 academies).

Table 14 - Primary school places: 8080005 Ingleby Barwick

Capacity: 330

Due to lower Reception intakes than expected across this planning area in recent years, has led to two schools to reduce their Reception offer by 30 places each. Firstly, Ingleby Mil Primary from 90 places down to 60 September 2020 and a further reduction of 30 places at Whinstone (an academy) will commence from September 2022 also from 90 to 60. This equates to a revised offer of places in this area of 330.

The LA will be monitoring this situation especially with increased housing applications that are expected. However, at present this falling trend is expected to continue based on projections due to lower birth rates. Although there are no planned expansions in this planning area, the LA are mindful this will need to be reviewed to ensure supply meets demand.

Primary: Eaglescliffe and Yarm

This area includes ten primary schools all but one is now an academy.

Table 15 - Primary school places: 8080006 Eaglescliffe and Yarm

Capacity: 331

Recently some schools are experiencing lower than expected Reception intakes across this planning area, increasing surplus capacity so the LA will be monitoring this regarding any financial impacts on those schools involved. This trend is expected to continue based on projections due to lower birth rates. Although there are no planned expansions in this planning area, the LA are mindful this will need to be reviewed especially with recent planning approval for additional homes, to ensure supply meets demand.

Stockton South Secondary

There are 6 schools, all academies including a Free School.

Table 16 - Secondary school places: 8080009 Stockton South

Capacity: 1029

At present several pupils access school places at secondary schools outside of their immediate located admission zone school, namely from the Thornaby area, as a result it leads to surplus in their local school Thornaby Academy (circa 60+) but fills up the more popular ones elsewhere in the planning area. Children from Ingleby Barwick continue to gain places in both Conyers and Egglescliffe.

Due to the excessive number of applications received by some of the schools in this planning, means that there is also the likelihood that those academies will have to admit above their capacity due to successful appeals. This creates a problem in year as it reduces places for children moving into the area wanting a place at their local school.

As part of the LA's Capital expansion programme an increase in the number of places are being provided at All Saints CE Academy. This was completed in 2022 with the academy increasing by 200 across the school from 700 to 900 places.

There is still some movement out of this area with approximately 40 pupils who gain a place at school/schools in another LA for example, Middlesbrough due to one Academy operating an admission policy criterion that accepts pupils from the Thornaby area. There are early indications that some Middlesbrough Borough Council residents, unable to secure a Middlesbrough school place for their children are applying for and in some cases securing places in Stockton-on-Tees Borough Council schools - adding to the pressures at this current time.

Borough level

Table 17 - Primary

Capacity: 2645

Table 18 - Secondary

Capacity: 1029

It is clear from the table above that the next few years of projected primary pupil numbers expected to enter secondary in Year 7 above, should be catered for following the Councils capital expansion to increase places in some schools. However, this situation is expected to change from September 2024 onwards as lower primary numbers begin to move into secondary thus increasing surplus places year on year. It also worth noting that this drop in pupil numbers will continue due to the lower pupil birth numbers as indicated in Table 17. Any further expansion will be predicated on future housing schemes, for example, West Stockton to ensure we can meet demand whilst carrying a small surplus of between 5 to 10 %.

This document was prepared by Darren Coulton in October 2023.